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You are sounding a little like IBM chairman Thomas Watson in 1943 who said "I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers." There were also incredulous comments about laptop computers when they were first introduced. Especially since they were essentially just slightly undersized and underpowered desktops that were designed to be more portable. As tablets mature, more innovative and practical uses may evolve.

Before making such comments, we would do well to remember that not only do societal advances inspire new technologies, but new technologies inspire societal advances. There may not be a big desire or need for these right now, but as they start to shrink more in profile and grow in power, I can see them starting to replace laptops. Palm-tops may take away some market-share, but sometimes there's no replacing a nice sized screen.

# posted by Anonymous 9:42 AM

Uhh, just because it's a niche product doesn't mean it should be killed off. It should only disappear if it's not profitable (just like any product, really).

Consider some other niche products: Macintosh (as you mentioned), Unix Workstations, dedicated gamer pcs.... should those be killed off just because they don't meet the needs of the lowest common denominator? Heck, for that matter, motorcycles are a niche product that most people can't find a use for - but the small group of people who do use them wouldn't trade them for anything.

# posted by Anonymous 10:12 AM

Whoa Nelly! Let me go over this again. First, I am not anti-niche products. I love them. I love signing for my UPS deliveries on a pen-based handheld. I love the computers they use to check cars. I would love to see my doctor use one of these to pull up my latest medical records and graphically chart my physical condition. (Well, maybe that part is something I can skip.) I even love non-Windows PCs, especially as servers, and my beloved TiVo is Linux-based.

*But* Tablet PCs were not marketed that way. They were marketed to the mainstream laptop-owning business user as a better laptop alternative. I didn't come up with that plan. I didn't see the ads for the disabled and how these devices help them, I saw no college student jotting notes in class, or the doctor making rounds efficiently thanks to his tablet. I saw a targeted effort to get Joe and Jane mainstream business user to make their next laptop a Tablet PC. And guess what, those people just didn't want them.

Why?

The current crop is incredibly overpriced and while it is cool to send handwritten emails or jot down a note electronically, the biggest drawback to all of these devices is still battery life, screen quality, price, and weight. That's how business people buy laptops, and that's why business people are sitting this round out. Add that's why I think they should.

I do believe we will have a smarter tablet, just as we have better and better laptops over time. I love watching DVDs on my Thinkpad when I fly, and carrying around my music library on my hard drive, but it took the airlines putting in in-seat power connections, and the Penium M chip's improved battery life and integrated WiFi to make me truly love my laptop. (I used to hate every second when my laptop was 8 pounds and had dial up, a small screen, and the battery life of a gnat. It's going to take all of those factors and something extra to make the tablet take off.

Consider this and then I will pipe down: The Palm Pilot (I still have one of the originals) was the breakout product that made the PDA a real category. When I was at Computer Shopper we used to do these endless PDA round-ups with Sharp Wizards and software only "PIM" schedulers, and the category was a mess that few cared about. Enter the Palm and BOOM, it just took off. You could feel the excitement. Look at the way people got in a frenzy when someone added a crappy digital camera to cell phones.

What I am saying is that today, few people own and use these products - look around and tell me that is not true. Some people genuinely love their tablets, some still love Sharp Wizards, and maybe Apple's Newton. The 3Com Audry may be chugging away in someone's kitchen (Mine is boxed in the garage), and I even lugged around the Momenta Pen computer runnnig Windows 3.1 with Pen Extensions back in the 90s. And let me tell, you, the current crop is just not there yet. WHen it is, I will applaud and gladly switch. Till, then I am telling you to wait. Get one down o $499 and we'll talk.
--Alice

# posted by Alice 11:31 AM

Yes, but Alice, you titled your first entry as "Somebody Please Kill Off the Tablet PC." The above arguement is on the money, but it's a far cry from "Kill Off" don't you think?

# posted by Anonymous 12:43 PM

Woweee, there's a concession! She'll talk when we offer her a Tablet for $499. 'Scuse me, ma'am...I can't find a new notebook for that.

# posted by Anonymous 12:56 PM

I'm saying it can't be both ways. If it is a niche product then it should be more in the high end PDA pricing group, in which case, I'll give it a go right now. If it's a business notebook competitor, then it has a long way to go.

And to be ultra clear, my headline should read: Somebody Please Kill Off the Current Tablet PCs

# posted by Alice 1:47 PM

I guess a niche product for drawing red and blue circles might only be worth $499...but does that mean that all niche products have to be available for $499?
The niches that the Tablet has worked its way into include medicine, sales and education. And the utility they deliver in these niches justifies their price. They're not PDA's with big screens, they're PC's that exercise XP's handwriting and voice capabilities and add value over and above a standard notebook.
Come on, Alice, you really, really want one and you can't justify it based on all the baggage in your attic (or refrigerator PC's in your garage). Give in.

# posted by Anonymous 2:07 PM

I had a chance not long ago to tour PC World's testing lab in San Francisco and the day I was there they had literally every tablet PC on the market lined up. I will admit that I oohed and ahhhed and picked them up and so on, but everyone there pretty much agreed that they had a great gee whiz factor, but then no one was lobbying to hang onto one for a few extra weeks "individual testing."

Then I turned the corner and further down they were testing high end game PCs and I couldn't stay away from those very eye-catching cases and all that horsepower. Given the choice, that is where my money would have gone.

But you're twisting my original point. If you market tablets to *business people* and tell them that this product makes a better laptop, I am saying the current version is failing to catch on. If you are marketing to consumers, that this is a cool gagdet-y more niche-style buy, then the price needs to match high-end PDAs and cell phones or that tactic will also fail.

If you're targeting doctors and so on, that's another world that I am not seeing. Maybe tablets will take on a whole new life re-positioned for that market (didn't Psion successfully do that years ago), but industrial products for UPS, and medical use, and insurance field estimators are another industry and *way* outside the scope of business users using PowerPoints and making sketches, and they aren't showing up as the target in any advertisiting I've seen.

--Alice

# posted by Alice 2:45 PM

sounds you are a flip flopping, You need to say what you mean and mean what you say. You really had no reason to be talking about something you don't know about. Sounds like you just wanted to tell us you travelled 89000 miles on one carrier. You can run from your record but you can't hide.

# posted by Anonymous 4:39 PM

sounds like you are a flip flopping, You need to say what you mean and mean what you say. You really had no reason to be talking about something you don't know about. Sounds like you just wanted to tell us you travelled 89000 miles on one carrier. You can run from your record but you can't hide.

# posted by Anonymous 4:39 PM

Well, there's no need to be rude. My point on the air travel is that you see a lot of business people when you travel all the time. I spot a lot of trends just by watching the actual tools business people use to communicate on the road - saw the Tungstem W make a brief appearance and then fade completely away, I see the Blackberry more than ever, and the sudden Treo appearance. Dell laptop cases have seriously thinned out in favor of rolling laptop bags, and Bose noise cancelling headsets are a big favorite. Clamshell phones are still more popular than candy bar models, plain old beepers are hard to come by, and last but not least, not one person in any of those trips was seen by me with a tablet PC. Didn't mean they don't exist, or that they aren't in someone's laptop bag, or that someone somewhere loves his or her tablet. Just merely pointing out that I have yet to see one in many different cities.

Tomorrow I fly to NY and then on Monday to London and Capetown. I will be on the lookout in every airport until I get back for a Tablet user. I will even snap a picture if I can of someone using one. But until I see one, my original point is the same: people just don't seem to be snapping them up. That is why I called the category a flop. If you don't mind me being flip!
--Alice

# posted by Alice 5:44 PM

Odds of spotting a tablet are around 1 in 150 or so if you take notebooks to be at 150 million and Tablets to be at 1 million. And convertibles are hard to detect from a distance. So look closely, and don't expect to see too many.

# posted by Anonymous 6:15 PM

Thats quite a scientific method you use to determine what to recommend to people. Don't you think that its misleading for you to assume that what YOU see at any one point in time is what is best, somethings show up and briefly and then disappear, and like someone else pointed out, have you used the tablet pc day to day before making some of the claims that you make about what it can or cannot do?

# posted by Anonymous 6:10 AM

Uh oh, there's blood in the water and someone is trying to prove they're smart.

Chill people. Alice is a technology writer; it's her job to put out her opinion on technology. You can agree or disagree but when you move onto personal attacks or stupid accusations, now you just start sounding like an ass. Alice's experience both in the "labs" and in the real world are very much part of her opinion, just like everyone else. Stick to the issue of discussing the article at hand and leave out attacking her methods. She has the successful technology site so she must be doing something right.

# posted by Anonymous 10:32 AM

as a seasoned writer, she should expect people will question her opinion, that's what happens if you claim to be an authority of some type, people challenge you or ignore you. And so far she is doing ok defending her position.

# posted by Anonymous 4:10 PM

At the end of the day technology for personal use has achieved very little of its promise.
Phones now allow for incessant chatter.
Laptops allow one to work more not better.
Handhelds have the dubious distinction of cramming more into less which is hardly readable.
The full measure of technology must be compared against its availability or access to have real value.
Instead overpriviledged bored teenagers overtake their elders and with the malice born of indifference sabotage the new technology.
Read a book, take a walk, listen to music and disconnect from the hive....
it is liberating.......

# posted by Anonymous 4:45 AM

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